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17 August 2001

Double Play

The generals in the State Peace and Development Council (SPDC) want the international community to believe that a process of reconciliation is continuing in Burma but at the ground level, there are not many signs that much effort is being made to restore democracy to the country or to speed up the process of reconciliation with the democracy movement.

The talks for obvious reasons are helping the image of the military junta even though they have only made minimal concessions to Daw Aung San Suu Kyi and the National League for Democracy (NLD) since the secret talks started in October last year. The generals are also using the talks as a reason for the international community to extend assistance to military-controlled Burma.

Daw Aung San Suu Kyi used SPDC sponsored Martyrs Day event on 19 July to express her feelings. She did not attend the event considered by many as a litmus test of the health of the secret talks. But the generals can ill-afford to let the international community think the talks have stalled and SPDC Foreign Minister quickly downplayed Daw Suu's absence, asserting the talks were still "on track." The SPDC also said in a statement, "The nation regrets her absence and the government has nothing to say but to respect her decision."

According to an International Herald Tribune report of 23 July, Daw Suu has proposed in June that the SPDC should release some 200 political prisoners and permit the NLD to reopen its offices as "minimum goodwill gestures". According to news agencies, SPDC has released 56 political prisoners since June (details www.ncgub.net) and permitted 18 NLD township offices in Rangoon Division to officially reopen.

Sources in Rangoon say SPDC Secretary-3 Lt Gen Win Myint and a team of military officials are reported to be studying cases of different political prisoners to decide whom to release.

Many of the political prisoners released in the past weeks have been those who were detained without trial at government "guesthouses", those who already had completed their sentences, those who had their sentences extended without reason, and those old or having health problems in prison.

"Unless the most recent detainees like Elected Representative U Nai Nai and people who still have long prison terms left to serve are freed, the releases cannot seriously be considered as significant," says an observer.

One significant development relating to the Martyrs Day, however, has been the presence of an NLD delegation representing Daw Suu at that commemorative event. This was the first time in recent years that the NLD has been allowed to officially attend an event of national importance. Central Executive Committee member U Lwin and two other party members laid wreaths at the tombs of General Aung San (Daw Suu's father) and other Martyrs at the Martyrs' Mausoleum in Rangoon.

European Union & the Special Envoy

Belgium hopes to send a European troika mission to Burma during its tenure as president of the European Union (EU). Belgian Ambassador to Thailand Pierre Vaesen said the visit, which would follow an EU mission to Rangoon earlier this year, could take place "in October, maybe even November."

United Nations Special Envoy Razali Ishmael is also slated to visit Burma later this month.

MiG-29 Deal and the Israeli Connection

Russia had been trying to sell MiGs to Burma since the military junta showed interest in the planes in 1996. The MiG-29s are a natural upgrade to the Burmese Air Force which has 36 F-7M fighters in the arsenal as well as the trainer model the FT-7S, which is the Chinese version of the MiG-21.

The junta's interest in MiGs started when Malaysia acquired the fighters in 1996. But the junta later decided to modernize its existing fleet of F-7Ms instead of buying the Russian fighters. The Israel Aircraft Industries was awarded the contract and the modernization work that cost the junta $40 million was completed last year.

Although the negotiations for the purchase of the Russian fighters started since last year, the interest to urgently acquire MiG-29 fighters may have been renewed when Thailand displayed its superior airpower during this year's border conflict. Thai warplanes flew over the disputed border region alarming the Burmese population with sonic booms and without being challenged by the Burmese Air Force.

During the initial negotiations for eight new warplanes and two trainers, Moscow was asking $200 million. But the SPDC offered $130 million for 10 second-hand MiG-29s from the Russian Air Force provided that each one had no more than 50 hours of flight time. Moscow agreed and for an additional $20 million it would supply aviation armaments and munitions for the aircraft which will be delivered by December.

Moscow however has set conditions that the subsequent modernization of the eight second-hand MiG-29 fighters and two MiG-29UB combat trainers must be carried out solely by the Russian-German firm MAPS, which was set up by the Russian MiG aircraft company and the Rosoboroneksport state company in conjunction with Germany's EADS corporation specially set up for this purpose, thereby ruling out any Israeli involvement in modernization of the MiGs in the future.

Buildup at Burma-Thai Border

Burma-Thai relations are improving at the diplomatic level. This follows separate visits to Burma in the past few weeks by the Thai Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra and Defense Minister Chavalit Yongchaiyudh. The junta's Secretary-1 Lt Gen Khin Nyunt is expected to pay a return goodwill visit to Bangkok soon.

But, the warming of bilateral relations at the diplomatic level, however, does not mean that the Thai government has regained the trust of the military leaders in Burma. Major issues like the flow of amphetamines into Thailand and Burma's concern over the presence of anti-junta forces at the border continue to prevent friendly ties from developing full fledge between two countries.

Both Burma and Thailand therefore continue to view each other as a potential source of threat.

Thailand Steps Up Border Security

In connection with narcotics suppression at the border that resulted in three Thai soldiers being killed in a clash with armed drug smugglers in Tak Province recently, Thai Prime Minister Thaksin called for the reinforcement of the military units along the border with Burma in Phophra District of Tak Province. Radio Thailand quoted the prime minister as saying the 7 August clash between Thai troops and soldiers of the Karen Buddhist group, Democratic Karen Buddhist Army was the result of the intensified suppression operations against narcotics trafficking and that it was vital to step up security at the border by deploying more military units.

Thailand has established Task Force 399, an anti-drug special unit trained by the Americans, in Chiang Mai early this year.

Burma Builds Strategic Roads

According to Shan Herald Agency for News, Maj-Gen Thein Sein, Commander of the (Golden) Triangle Region Command, saying, "Only by securing communications along the border we shall be able to react in time to any foreign incursions," issued an order on 20 July to build two new strategic roads in Tachilek opposite Chiang Rai of Thailand. The roads are to be completed in six months.

New Army Unit, Naval Base Planned

The Democratic Voice of Burma Radio reported that the SPDC has formed a new tactical operations headquarters in Kawthaung District across Ranong of Thailand. The newly formed military unit--No.20 Tactical Operations Headquarters--consists of 10 battalions--three battalions each from the three Tactical Commands and one base battalion.

SPDC authorities are also planning to build a new naval station under the Coastal Region Military Command in Tenasserim Division. The new naval station that will be constructed near Thala Chedi Village in Kawthaung District will accommodate the new Tenasserim Naval Command's Tactical Command Headquarters and will include a deep-sea port facility capable of handling big battleships. It will become the biggest naval base and military facility on the Tenasserim coast.

Meanwhile, Brig Gen Aye Kywe, commander of the Coastal Region Military Command, recently urged military units along the Burma-Thai border to be vigilant. He said, "Although the Tachilek-Mae Sai border conflict is over, border security matters could not be taken lightly. a neighboring country is taking more interest than before on the modernization and development of our Defense Services. They are gathering intelligence reports on battalion bases and tactical command centers including border outposts and the movements of naval vessels and military aircrafts as well. Many informers from the country on the other side have also seeped into the country including Kawthaung and other border areas." He urged those responsible to expose them and to always have military awareness concerning the security of the border areas.

Air Force Chief Dismissed

Air Force Commander-in-Chief Lt Gen Kyaw Than has been dismissed and replaced by Air Force Chief of Staff Maj Gen Myint Swe. The dismissal was believed to have taken place about two months ago when he disappeared from public view.

Speculations are that Lt Gen Kyaw Than was dismissed following an inquiry into the crash of the military helicopter that killed SPDC Secretary-2 Lt Gen Tin Oo and other high-ranking military officials in February this year. He was also in the news last year when his intoxicated son and a companion were reported to have forced a packed passenger bus to send them to a destination they wanted to go in Rangoon.

SPDC has not announced either the dismissal or the replacement appointment but Maj Gen Myint Swe was reported by Rangoon media as inspecting some air bases on 17 July in his capacity as the air force commander-in-chief.

Lt Gen Kyaw Than was last heard being referred to as the Air Force Commander-in-Chief in mid May after his return from Malaysia.